Spring Dodger Analysis

First of all, before I get into the meat of this post, Happy Birthday Susie! Think, next year you'll be celebrating an age that starts with 3!

Also, tomorrow is my first day as an employee at Chevron. I'm excited I'll be better able to take care of my family with paid time off and benefits.

Now on to my analysis of the Dodgers for the 2008 season. I've seen a number of pre-season predictions that show the Diamondbacks winning the National League West again this season. They do have a good team and I do think they'll return to the post-season, but as the NL Wild Card team. I'm picking them to finish 2 games behind my Dodgers, and the Rockies will prove that last season was somewhat of a fluke. They also have a good young team, but I'm seeing them finishing 6 games behind the Dodgers. The Padres are good as well, but will finish 2 games behind the Rockies. As for the Giants, well...better luck next decade.

Why do I think this about the Dodgers and their 93-69 record in the upcoming '08 season? Well, here are my thoughts, position by position. However, if multiple injuries start coming into play, you can throw this out the window.

Pitchers (starting): We have four solid starting pitchers: Penny, Lowe, Billingsly and Kuroda. The fifth spot will probably start off with Loaiza, and then transition to Schmidt once he's healthy (I'll say in May). Penny, Lowe and Billinglsey will all finish with 15+ wins and Kuroda will be right behind them with about 13. Lowe will have a career year (17-18 wins, ERA near 3.00) as he is in the walk year of his contract. His motivation is high to perform and I think he will do just that. Penny will be the Penny of '07 and Billingsley will have a breakout year in his first full season in the starting rotation. Kuroda has the element of surprise as the hitters have not seen him before. Schmidt will finish around 10-7 with an ERA around 4.00.

Pitchers (relief): There is really no change from last year's bullpen, so I expect the same solid results as last year. Saito will close, Broxton will setup and if Saito gets injured for a lengthy time, you will see Broxton take over the closer role (which I think he will do anyway next year).

Cather: It's Russell Martin. He's an all-star and will look like it again this year. Look for an average around .300 with 20 HR and 70 RBI. He will play a few less games, and that's ok for durability's sake

1B: James Loney will have a breakout year playing his first full season on the team. Look for an average near .330, around 20 HR and 100 RBI. And that doesn't even consider his Gold Glove caliber defense. He will get a lot of attention this year throughout baseball.

2B: Jeff Kent is Jeff Kent. He is hungry for a World Series trip and victory this year. I think it may be time. He'll have another good year with average near .280, about 25 HR and 90 RBI.

SS: Rafael Furcal, like Derek Lowe, is in the walk year of his contract...and he's healthy (so far)! He will be the spark plug the Dodgers need this year. He'll hit near .320 with and OBP near .400. He's never had a lot of power so he'll finish with about a dozen HR this year. He'll score about 120 runs, though.

3B: This will be interesting. I would look for Andy LaRoche to be the starting third baseman. I don't think he'll have an outstanding year, but he also will be injured once or twice this season. He'll hit about .260 with 15 HR and maybe 60 RBI. He won't get much consideration for Rookie of the Year, but I'd love to see him prove me wrong. When he's injured, you'll see Garciaparra playing third. The rest of the time, you'll see Garciaparra pinch-hitting late in games and giving other infielders a rest once in a while.

Left Field: This is the other interesting position. It's a win-win in my eyes with either Ethier or Pierre starting there. I figure Pierre will start there primarily for the first 2-3 months because he'll complain and whine if he doesn't, and he's making $9 million/year. However, I think if the Dodgers are smart, and Jason Repko and/or Delwyn Young (check out this home run he hit 2/3 the way up the the stands in LF on the last day of the season last year...I was there!) can stay healthy, they will (and should) trade Pierre. Then Ethier becomes the starting left fielder and will be fresh from not seeing as much playing time in the first half.

Center Field: Welcome, Andruw Jones! Yes, I think they overpaid for him, but he is a great player. I think he will definitely have a rebound year this year hitting about .275 with 40 HR and 120 RBI. Needless to say, his defense will be much appreciated as well. How can it not be with 10 Gold Gloves already? (By the way, Dodger players have earned a total of 10 Gold Gloves in the past 26 years!)

Right Field: Matt Kemp will enjoy a breakout year, like Loney, but with more power. There is a lot of talk about him in baseball and how good he can be. I have a feeling you'll see it this year. Look for numbers around .310 for average to go with 40 HR and 130 RBI. He could very well compete for MVP this year, I think.

Joe Torre is a nice addition as manager. I think his biggest help to the team will be maintaining good team chemistry and knowing what moves to make when.

So looking back at the predictions above, you'll see a lot more power than the past few years as 5 Dodgers will finish with 20+ HR. Three starting pitchers will have ERAs under 4.00 and the other two (Kuroda and Schmidt) will be about 4.00-4.30. Also, the arms in the outfield will be much better than the past few years with Kemp and Jones keeping runners from taking extra bases.

In other baseball divisions, here's what I'm calling:
NL Central champs - Cubs: No they will not win the World Series 100 years after their last one!
NL East champs - Mets: I had the Braves picked to win the East until Santana landed on the Mets. Sorry, but the Phillies will be a close 3rd. This will be the second most interesting division to watch in baseball with just 3 games separating the top three teams. (The NL West will be the best due to all the young talent and having 4 teams finish above .500 again.)
AL West champs - Angels: This is a gimme. Yes, the Mariners improved, but they are still not the Angels. They'll finish at least 6 games in back of the Angels.
AL Central champs - Tigers: Again, the Indians are good, but the Tigers will be brutal this year. They'll finish with about 99 wins.
AL East - The Red Sox will repeat and the Yankees will repeat as the AL Wild Card team.
Playoffs: Look for the Dodgers to take down the Mets in the first round and the Diamondbacks to do the same to the Cubs. The Dodgers will go to the World Series after winning another all-West NL Championship Series. As for the American League, the Tigers will take out the Yankees and play the Red Sox who will take out the Angels. Look for the Tigers to show that all of their off-season moves paid off as they will advance to the World Series, where the Dodgers will pull off an upset that will seem similar to the 1988 upset of the A's.

Call me crazy or optimistic, but that's how I see it at this point. Who knows what will actually happen and which teams will get crushed by injuries (watch the NL there), but it will be a good baseball season if we can ignore the drama around Bonds and Clemens. All signs point to them doing the drugs, so let's just move on.