Spring Dodger Analysis

First of all, before I get into the meat of this post, Happy Birthday Susie! Think, next year you'll be celebrating an age that starts with 3!

Also, tomorrow is my first day as an employee at Chevron. I'm excited I'll be better able to take care of my family with paid time off and benefits.

Now on to my analysis of the Dodgers for the 2008 season. I've seen a number of pre-season predictions that show the Diamondbacks winning the National League West again this season. They do have a good team and I do think they'll return to the post-season, but as the NL Wild Card team. I'm picking them to finish 2 games behind my Dodgers, and the Rockies will prove that last season was somewhat of a fluke. They also have a good young team, but I'm seeing them finishing 6 games behind the Dodgers. The Padres are good as well, but will finish 2 games behind the Rockies. As for the Giants, well...better luck next decade.

Why do I think this about the Dodgers and their 93-69 record in the upcoming '08 season? Well, here are my thoughts, position by position. However, if multiple injuries start coming into play, you can throw this out the window.

Pitchers (starting): We have four solid starting pitchers: Penny, Lowe, Billingsly and Kuroda. The fifth spot will probably start off with Loaiza, and then transition to Schmidt once he's healthy (I'll say in May). Penny, Lowe and Billinglsey will all finish with 15+ wins and Kuroda will be right behind them with about 13. Lowe will have a career year (17-18 wins, ERA near 3.00) as he is in the walk year of his contract. His motivation is high to perform and I think he will do just that. Penny will be the Penny of '07 and Billingsley will have a breakout year in his first full season in the starting rotation. Kuroda has the element of surprise as the hitters have not seen him before. Schmidt will finish around 10-7 with an ERA around 4.00.

Pitchers (relief): There is really no change from last year's bullpen, so I expect the same solid results as last year. Saito will close, Broxton will setup and if Saito gets injured for a lengthy time, you will see Broxton take over the closer role (which I think he will do anyway next year).

Cather: It's Russell Martin. He's an all-star and will look like it again this year. Look for an average around .300 with 20 HR and 70 RBI. He will play a few less games, and that's ok for durability's sake

1B: James Loney will have a breakout year playing his first full season on the team. Look for an average near .330, around 20 HR and 100 RBI. And that doesn't even consider his Gold Glove caliber defense. He will get a lot of attention this year throughout baseball.

2B: Jeff Kent is Jeff Kent. He is hungry for a World Series trip and victory this year. I think it may be time. He'll have another good year with average near .280, about 25 HR and 90 RBI.

SS: Rafael Furcal, like Derek Lowe, is in the walk year of his contract...and he's healthy (so far)! He will be the spark plug the Dodgers need this year. He'll hit near .320 with and OBP near .400. He's never had a lot of power so he'll finish with about a dozen HR this year. He'll score about 120 runs, though.

3B: This will be interesting. I would look for Andy LaRoche to be the starting third baseman. I don't think he'll have an outstanding year, but he also will be injured once or twice this season. He'll hit about .260 with 15 HR and maybe 60 RBI. He won't get much consideration for Rookie of the Year, but I'd love to see him prove me wrong. When he's injured, you'll see Garciaparra playing third. The rest of the time, you'll see Garciaparra pinch-hitting late in games and giving other infielders a rest once in a while.

Left Field: This is the other interesting position. It's a win-win in my eyes with either Ethier or Pierre starting there. I figure Pierre will start there primarily for the first 2-3 months because he'll complain and whine if he doesn't, and he's making $9 million/year. However, I think if the Dodgers are smart, and Jason Repko and/or Delwyn Young (check out this home run he hit 2/3 the way up the the stands in LF on the last day of the season last year...I was there!) can stay healthy, they will (and should) trade Pierre. Then Ethier becomes the starting left fielder and will be fresh from not seeing as much playing time in the first half.

Center Field: Welcome, Andruw Jones! Yes, I think they overpaid for him, but he is a great player. I think he will definitely have a rebound year this year hitting about .275 with 40 HR and 120 RBI. Needless to say, his defense will be much appreciated as well. How can it not be with 10 Gold Gloves already? (By the way, Dodger players have earned a total of 10 Gold Gloves in the past 26 years!)

Right Field: Matt Kemp will enjoy a breakout year, like Loney, but with more power. There is a lot of talk about him in baseball and how good he can be. I have a feeling you'll see it this year. Look for numbers around .310 for average to go with 40 HR and 130 RBI. He could very well compete for MVP this year, I think.

Joe Torre is a nice addition as manager. I think his biggest help to the team will be maintaining good team chemistry and knowing what moves to make when.

So looking back at the predictions above, you'll see a lot more power than the past few years as 5 Dodgers will finish with 20+ HR. Three starting pitchers will have ERAs under 4.00 and the other two (Kuroda and Schmidt) will be about 4.00-4.30. Also, the arms in the outfield will be much better than the past few years with Kemp and Jones keeping runners from taking extra bases.

In other baseball divisions, here's what I'm calling:
NL Central champs - Cubs: No they will not win the World Series 100 years after their last one!
NL East champs - Mets: I had the Braves picked to win the East until Santana landed on the Mets. Sorry, but the Phillies will be a close 3rd. This will be the second most interesting division to watch in baseball with just 3 games separating the top three teams. (The NL West will be the best due to all the young talent and having 4 teams finish above .500 again.)
AL West champs - Angels: This is a gimme. Yes, the Mariners improved, but they are still not the Angels. They'll finish at least 6 games in back of the Angels.
AL Central champs - Tigers: Again, the Indians are good, but the Tigers will be brutal this year. They'll finish with about 99 wins.
AL East - The Red Sox will repeat and the Yankees will repeat as the AL Wild Card team.
Playoffs: Look for the Dodgers to take down the Mets in the first round and the Diamondbacks to do the same to the Cubs. The Dodgers will go to the World Series after winning another all-West NL Championship Series. As for the American League, the Tigers will take out the Yankees and play the Red Sox who will take out the Angels. Look for the Tigers to show that all of their off-season moves paid off as they will advance to the World Series, where the Dodgers will pull off an upset that will seem similar to the 1988 upset of the A's.

Call me crazy or optimistic, but that's how I see it at this point. Who knows what will actually happen and which teams will get crushed by injuries (watch the NL there), but it will be a good baseball season if we can ignore the drama around Bonds and Clemens. All signs point to them doing the drugs, so let's just move on.

Half way and still ok!

Well, Traci has been gone for two days now and she'll return in two days, on Monday (morning). I've managed to make it so far having a pretty good time with the girls. I'm hoping tomorrow and Monday go just as well. Friday was a little rough to start as Courntey cried off and on for about an hour after we returned home from dropping Traci off at the port. She kept saying she was having a bad day because she missed mommy. It was so sad because I could tell she was being sincere. (Even made me tear up a little to see her that sad.) Fortunately once we went outside on the swing set, things started turning around and she hasn't been sad since. Skyler has done amazingly well as she only cried for her this morning when she first woke up. Once Courtney and I told her mommy was still on the big boat, she was ok. I think maybe she just forgot or expected her to be home already. Either way, she's been fine.

Today, we headed down to the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach with my parents. Everyone had a lot of fun but was pretty tired by the time we left. Courtney fell asleep while I was holding her at the aquarium and stayed asleep in the car. My mom was even falling asleep on the way home too. Goes to show how much two kids can work three adults. However, I must say, Courtney was outstanding today. Not once did she try to run away or not do what we asked. She was definitely on her best behavior. Skyler was Skyler, just wanting to go wherever she could, but fortunately, she never got that far away. She really did pretty good too though. I definitely cannot complain about how today went.

As for me, I miss Traci. It's no fun sleeping alone (although I don't have to worry about taking blankets away from her or vice versa). I slept pretty bad last night, despite going to bed a little earlier than normal. I think part of it was that I missed her, but I also went to bed with a lot on mind and I just couldn't seem to slow it (my mind/brain) down. Plus I woke up a couple of times sweating...that could be the virus I have though...seems to only happen when I'm sick. (Hope that's not TMI for you!)

It's definitely true though that time apart makes the heart grow fonder. I can't wait to see her on Monday. I'm sure she'll be happy to see us too, but will be glad that she was able to get a break from the normal everyday stuff. She definitely deserves it for all she does for the girls and me.

This weekend

I guess one sign of the aging process is when you have two kids that are big enough to go on roller coasters. Last night, Skyler went on her first roller coaster: Gadget's Go Coaster in Toontown at Disneyland. And she liked it! Needless to say, that makes me a very happy daddy. I'm glad that so far there hasn't been a roller coaster the kids tried and didn't like. Courtney still has a few to try, but so far so good.

Today represents another of Traci's and my anniversaries. (There are three we keep track of.) It was 12 years ago today that we got engaged, at her 18th birthday party. It brings back fun memories, which are always aided by the video we have of the whole thing (even though we haven't watched it today).

Now it's time to go as the girls need to get ready for bed and I need to start mentally preparing for a 4-day weekend (starting Friday) with the kids and without Traci. Toodaloo.

Recent Thoughts and Hap's

So it's been a little rough finding the time to keep up with this whole blogging thing. It seems whenever I think I have time to do this, I realize I should be doing something else. Such is the case now. I should be doing laundry, reading for my spiritual formation/leadership group or playing Wii. This time, I'm ignoring those thoughts...at least for a few minutes.

I had the joy of having a physical today and a fit-for-duty test as part of the Chevron hiring/on-boarding process. It's always great to have a test that you pass, but makes you realize how bad of shape you're in. I could probably go on forever about this, but it's probably not a good idea.

Although I'm not a football fan, I was glad to see the Giants win yesterday. I always like it when the underdog pulls off the upset, unless it's against my Dodgers. And besides, it's not often I root for a team called the Giants!

Tickets for the Dodgers vs. Red Sox exhibition game on March 29 at the Los Angeles Coliseum went on sale to the public Saturday at 10:00 a.m. (I didn't learn until after the fact that season ticket holders had access to tickets the Wednesday prior...punks!) They were sold out at 11:00 a.m. Good thing I was on the computer at 10:00. I managed to get 6 (4 for us and 2 for my parents). The scary thing is we're in row 81! I might as well have rented a blimp. But hey, how often do the Dodgers play at the Coliseum? The bottom line is we're in and I'm excited. Maybe I'll post a picture of the view once it happens.

As for the geekiness in me...it's still strong. Pi day (March 14, or 3/14) is coming up, and wouldn't you know, I found a website for it. It's pretty cool. They even have merchandise! I think maybe I'll get a pie and take it into work, since that's a Friday I'll be in the office.

I'm getting ready to play Mr. Mom for the weekend in a couple of weeks. Traci will be heading off on a scrapbooking cruise to Ensanada (Mexico) on the 15th, returning 3 days later. That's right...a cruise that has scrapbooking 24/7...if you can handle it. The nice part is I'll be taking a couple of days off from work. It should actually be fun. Traci gets a break, I get the kids...wait what was my point? (j/k)

I just finished teaching our SS class at church about a book I went through on rekindling marriage. I'm not sure how effective it was as this was my first time teaching our class. It had it's moments. I think maybe why I'm struggling with understanding how it went is because I am not by any means an expert on marriage. I love my marriage with Traci, but I'm not anywhere near perfect in the marriage department. I guess it's just one of those things where it may not be how much you know about it, but how open you are to learning about it and applying things you think could help or improve the marriage. It's one of those learning experiences, I guess.

Well, the birthday parade continues to march on. I hosted a special 30th birthday party for Traci on Saturday (her birthday was really yesterday), which was an all-girl party. It was a lot of fun and I was happy to see so many people show up to show Traci their love for her. It always makes me happy when I see that other people love her so much...makes me a proud hubby. Next up: Courtney's 4th birhtday (20th) and her Ariel party (23rd). She's already talking about her Ariel party and the bounce house.

I guess that's enough ramblings for now. It's off to chores/Wii.